Propuesta de un modelo para extender la serie de los derrames anuales del río San Juan desde 1909 a 1866 basado en las precipitaciones de Santiago de Chile
The systematic measurements of the flows and runoff of the San Juan River began in 1909-10, a fact that limits the application of tests in previous periods to the aforementioned and thus not being able to detect impacts of climate change in its series (the less 100 years of records).To make this pos...
Guardado en:
| Autores principales: | , |
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| Formato: | Online |
| Lenguaje: | spa |
| Publicado: |
Facultad de Filosofía y Letras, Universidad Nacional de Cuyo
2019
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://revistas.uncu.edu.ar/ojs3/index.php/beg/article/view/2490 |
| Sumario: | The systematic measurements of the flows and runoff of the San Juan River began in 1909-10, a fact that limits the application of tests in previous periods to the aforementioned and thus not being able to detect impacts of climate change in its series (the less 100 years of records).To make this possible, it is necessary to roll back your series in such a way that it has the data that makes it possible to apply the test to detect significant changes in the long term.Since the rainfall in Santiago de Chile (PSGO) has been measured since 1866, the statistical relationship with the San Juan River runoff is investigated to evaluate the feasibility of extending the time series of this river, elaborating a mathematical model.Due to the significant statistical association between the DJUA and the PSGO a non-linear model is constructed with the Levenberg-Marquardt method, obtaining an explained variance of 66%; (with the linear model a 60% was obtained), which justifies the use of the MNL, with the application of the same extends the series of the DJUA 43 years backwards. |
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