Predicción de epidemias del oídio de la vid (Uncinula necator (Schwein) Burrill) mediante modelos basados en factores meteorológicos
Powdery mildew, caused by Uncinula necator (Schwein) Burrill is one of the most damaging disease affecting grapevines (Vitis vinifera L.) in Mendoza and worldwide, reducing yield and fruit quality. Throughout six growing seasons (2001/02; 2002/03; 2005/06; 2007/08; 2008/09; 2009/10), powdery mildew...
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Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias-UNCuyo
2015
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| Acceso en línea: | https://revistas.uncu.edu.ar/ojs3/index.php/RFCA/article/view/3315 |
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I11-R107article-33152022-11-09T18:10:39Z Weather-based models for predicting grape powdery mildew (Uncinula necator (Schwein) Burrill) epidemics Predicción de epidemias del oídio de la vid (Uncinula necator (Schwein) Burrill) mediante modelos basados en factores meteorológicos Oriolani, Enrique J. A. Moschini, Ricardo C. Salas, Sergio Martinez, Malvina I. Banchero, Santiago oídio de la vid variables meteorológicas modelos logísticos powdery mildew meteorological variables logistic models Powdery mildew, caused by Uncinula necator (Schwein) Burrill is one of the most damaging disease affecting grapevines (Vitis vinifera L.) in Mendoza and worldwide, reducing yield and fruit quality. Throughout six growing seasons (2001/02; 2002/03; 2005/06; 2007/08; 2008/09; 2009/10), powdery mildew incidence values (expressed as daily epidemic increment rates) were observed in clusters from flowering to onset of ripening (change of color of the grape berries), in a grapevine planted with the susceptible Chenin cultivar at the EEA INTA Mendoza (Luján de Cuyo). From hourly values of thermal-moisture elements recorded by upper canopy sensors, meteorological variables were calculated in the 15 previous days of each epidemic observation. Using variables which integrate the effects of air temperature and humidity and frequency of light precipitations over the epidemic progress, logistic models were adjusted for estimating the probability of occurrrence of severe, moderate and nil epidemic increment rates, reaching maximum prediction accuracy of 92.5% (two variable models, N=40). Predicted values by the univariate model (selected by Stepwise procedure; prediction accuracy: 87.5%) were validated with the epidemic curve observed during 2000/2001 growing season. These model predictions could complement epidemic observations, giving regional scale to warning systems for improving the decision making process regarding disease chemical control. El oídio de la vid (Vitis vinifera L.), causado por Uncinula necator (Schwein) Burrill, es una enfermedad fúngica relevante en viñedos de la provincia de Mendoza, ocasionando pérdidas de producción y degradación de la calidad del fruto cosechado. Durante seis campañas agrícolas (2001/02; 2002/03; 2005/06; 2007/08; 2008/09; 2009/10), en un parral del cultivar susceptible Chenín (EEA INTA Mendoza, Luján de Cuyo), se observó la evolución de la incidencia del oídio en racimos (como tasa de incremento epidémica diaria), desde floración hasta envero. A partir de registros térmico-hídricos horarios (monitoreados con sensores ubicados en la parte superior del canopeo) se calcularon variables meteorológicas en los 15 días previos a cada observación del progreso de la epidemia. Con variables que integran efectos de la temperatura, humedad del aire y frecuencia de precipitaciones ligeras sobre el incremento de la enfermedad en función del tiempo, se ajustaron modelos de regresión logística para estimar las probabilidades de ocurrencia de tasas epidémicas categorizadas (severa, moderada y nula), logrando una precisión de predicción máxima de 92,5% (modelo bivariado, N=40). Las predicciones del modelo univariado (seleccionado por "Stepwise"; precisión de predicción: 87,5%) se validaron satisfactoriamente con la curva epidémica observada en 2000/2001. Los valores estimados por estos modelos podrían complementar a las observaciones epidémicas y emitir alarmas regionales que sustenten la toma de decisión de control químico. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias-UNCuyo 2015-12-01 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion application/pdf https://revistas.uncu.edu.ar/ojs3/index.php/RFCA/article/view/3315 Revista de la Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias UNCuyo; Vol. 47 No. 2 (2015): July-December; 197-211 Revista de la Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias UNCuyo; Vol. 47 Núm. 2 (2015): Julio-Diciembre; 197-211 1853-8665 0370-4661 spa https://revistas.uncu.edu.ar/ojs3/index.php/RFCA/article/view/3315/2438 |
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Revista de la Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias |
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Revista de la Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias |
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| author |
Oriolani, Enrique J. A. Moschini, Ricardo C. Salas, Sergio Martinez, Malvina I. Banchero, Santiago |
| spellingShingle |
Oriolani, Enrique J. A. Moschini, Ricardo C. Salas, Sergio Martinez, Malvina I. Banchero, Santiago Predicción de epidemias del oídio de la vid (Uncinula necator (Schwein) Burrill) mediante modelos basados en factores meteorológicos oídio de la vid variables meteorológicas modelos logísticos powdery mildew meteorological variables logistic models |
| author_facet |
Oriolani, Enrique J. A. Moschini, Ricardo C. Salas, Sergio Martinez, Malvina I. Banchero, Santiago |
| author_sort |
Oriolani, Enrique J. A. |
| title |
Predicción de epidemias del oídio de la vid (Uncinula necator (Schwein) Burrill) mediante modelos basados en factores meteorológicos |
| title_short |
Predicción de epidemias del oídio de la vid (Uncinula necator (Schwein) Burrill) mediante modelos basados en factores meteorológicos |
| title_full |
Predicción de epidemias del oídio de la vid (Uncinula necator (Schwein) Burrill) mediante modelos basados en factores meteorológicos |
| title_fullStr |
Predicción de epidemias del oídio de la vid (Uncinula necator (Schwein) Burrill) mediante modelos basados en factores meteorológicos |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Predicción de epidemias del oídio de la vid (Uncinula necator (Schwein) Burrill) mediante modelos basados en factores meteorológicos |
| title_sort |
weather-based models for predicting grape powdery mildew (uncinula necator (schwein) burrill) epidemics |
| description |
Powdery mildew, caused by Uncinula necator (Schwein) Burrill is one of the most damaging disease affecting grapevines (Vitis vinifera L.) in Mendoza and worldwide, reducing yield and fruit quality. Throughout six growing seasons (2001/02; 2002/03; 2005/06; 2007/08; 2008/09; 2009/10), powdery mildew incidence values (expressed as daily epidemic increment rates) were observed in clusters from flowering to onset of ripening (change of color of the grape berries), in a grapevine planted with the susceptible Chenin cultivar at the EEA INTA Mendoza (Luján de Cuyo). From hourly values of thermal-moisture elements recorded by upper canopy sensors, meteorological variables were calculated in the 15 previous days of each epidemic observation. Using variables which integrate the effects of air temperature and humidity and frequency of light precipitations over the epidemic progress, logistic models were adjusted for estimating the probability of occurrrence of severe, moderate and nil epidemic increment rates, reaching maximum prediction accuracy of 92.5% (two variable models, N=40). Predicted values by the univariate model (selected by Stepwise procedure; prediction accuracy: 87.5%) were validated with the epidemic curve observed during 2000/2001 growing season. These model predictions could complement epidemic observations, giving regional scale to warning systems for improving the decision making process regarding disease chemical control. |
| publisher |
Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias-UNCuyo |
| publishDate |
2015 |
| url |
https://revistas.uncu.edu.ar/ojs3/index.php/RFCA/article/view/3315 |
| topic |
oídio de la vid variables meteorológicas modelos logísticos powdery mildew meteorological variables logistic models |
| topic_facet |
oídio de la vid variables meteorológicas modelos logísticos powdery mildew meteorological variables logistic models |
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